Case-Shiller® Home Price Index Forecasts

Exclusive house price forecasts based on Fiserv's leading Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes.

Moody's Analytics and Fiserv have partnered to create the most trustworthy and authoritative U.S. house price forecasts available. They are market-specific and accurately track historical residential house prices over time.

Case-Shiller Indexes are unique because they:

• are a total market measure not based solely on conventional and conforming loans
• are a value-weighted repeat-sales index
• include market transactions (no appraisal bias)
• filter out non-arms length sales
• down-weight pairs with long intervals between sales and reduce the influence of extreme price changes

Forecasts are updated monthly and include:

• Single-family aggregate index for:
  The U.S. and census regions
  50 states
  All metropolitan areas and divisions
  Over 400 counties
  Over 4,000 zip codes

Applications

• Identifying market opportunities:
  Home equity and credit card marketing programs
• Risk management for mortgage securities investors:
  Updating mortgage pool collateral values
  Default and prepayment modeling
• Managing mortgage servicing portfolios:
  Customer retention and marketing
• Measuring risk exposure to residential real estate:
  Identifying markets with most risk/opportunity

Key Features

• The model identifies long-term influences on house prices, such as income trends and demographics, and cyclical factors such as unemployment and changes in mortgage rates
• Analysis and forecasts are based on a fully specified supply-and-demand model.
• Forecasts for baseline and alternative economic scenarios
• Forecasts house prices under stressed economic conditions

In addition to the baseline forecast (the most likely economic scenario), Moody's Analytics forecasts the CSIs under alternative economic scenarios. Understanding the future path of house prices in relation to economic stresses such as oil price shocks, financial market distress, dollar devaluation, and others is critical to successful strategic planning and risk management.

The county house price forecasts are driven by county data on median household income, the unemployment rate, mortgage interest rates, population growth, and metro area or state house price trends. Moody's Analytics currently forecasts the aggregate index for 367 counties, updated monthly.

In addition to the forecast dataset, clients can access the comprehensive historical database. The database includes exclusive Case-Shiller Indexes for:

• Over 130 metro areas
• Over 400 counties
• Over 4,000 zip codes

Updates

Forecasts are updated monthly and alternative scenarios are updated four times per year.

Additional Details

Multiple packages are available to fit your needs.