Case-Shiller® Home Price Index Forecasts
Exclusive house-price forecasts based on Fiserv's leading Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Moody's Economy.com and Fiserv Lending Solutions have partnered to create the most authoritative U.S. house-price forecasts available. The robust house-price model, based on Case-Shiller Indexes, forecasts single-family house and condo prices at the national, regional and state levels and for 382 metropolitan areas and 351 counties.
- The model identifies long-term influences on prices, such as income trends and demographics, and cyclical factors, such as joblessness and changes in mortgage rates.
- Analytics and forecasts are based on a fully specified supply and demand model.
- Forecasts are updated monthly and alternative scenarios are updated four times per year.
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Case-Shiller Indexes - The Leading Measure of House Prices
Case-Shiller Indexes are recognized as the most trustworthy and authoritative house-price change measures available. They are market-specific and accurately track historical residential house prices over time. Case-Shiller Indexes are unique because they:
- are a total market measure not based solely on conforming loans and conventional loans.
- include actual sales that do not include refinances.
- include price tiers for 40 metro areas.
Forecasting House Prices in a Stressed Economic Environment
In addition to the baseline forecast (i.e., the most likely economic scenario), Moody's Economy.com forecasts the CSIs under alternative economic scenarios. Understanding the future path of house prices in relation to economic stresses such as oil price shocks, financial market distress, dollar devaluation, and others is critical to successful strategic planning and risk management.
The county house-price forecasts are driven by county data on median household income, the jobless rate, mortgage interest rates, population growth and metro area or state house-price trends. Moody's Economy.com currently forecasts the aggregate index for 351 counties, updated monthly.
In addition to the forecast dataset, clients receive the comprehensive historical database. The database includes:
- Repeat-purchase house-price indices for all metro areas.
- Exclusive Case-Shiller Indexes for 102 markets.
- Case-Shiller Indexes for 351 counties.
- Case-Shiller Indexes for approximately 3,750 zip codes.
Product Options
Multiple packages are available to fit your needs. Moody's Economy.com offers the complete historical dataset and an index for condominiums as well as forecasts for counties, metro areas, or both. Contact your sales representative or our client service desk toll-free at 866-275-3266 or email help@economy.com for more information.
Contact Us to Learn More
Contact us today to learn how Moody's Economy.com can help you meet your company's retail credit risk management and economic stress-testing goals.
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