Custom & Idiosyncratic Scenarios

Economic scenarios tailored to your unique business models, exposures, geographic footprint and assumptions.

In order to meet regulatory requirements and for strategic business planning needs, financial institutions are looking to analyze how an economic downturn can affect their portfolios according to their unique geographic footprint and business lines, whether they can remain adequately capitalized during all phases of an economic cycle and in stressed scenarios, how much they may lose in a stressed scenario, and the degree of impact of imprecise risk factors (risk drivers—interest rates, exchange rates, default risk, migrating and correlation).

Tailored to Your Unique Business Models

With best-in-class modeling and the analytical expertise of nearly 80 economists with extensive experience in national and regional data management and forecasting, Moody's Analytics provides custom/idiosyncratic scenarios to enable you to more accurately stress-test your portfolios for regulatory requirements and to increase confidence in your analysis and projections.

We design scenarios that are tailored to your particular business models, portfolio strategies and key risks, stressing the specific business lines and markets in which you operate and your unique regional and industry exposures.We develop scenarios customized to clients' unique macroeconomic views, "what if" assumptions, or other needs. We can produce custom scenarios rapidly, either building a complete scenario around your key series/assumptions or working with you to specify a scenario. For Example:

  • The individual and combined impacts of Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and/or Italy exiting the euro zone
  • A recession triggered by a sharp slowdown in emerging economies
  • A global crisis triggered by US fiscal issues
  • The global implications of a full euro-zone breakdown

Leveraging Your Existing Information Systems

We can leverage your existing stress-testing, risk identification processes, and internal information systems (sales and/or loan volumes, delinquencies, sensitivity or elasticity analysis) in conjunction with our extensive expertise (research, models, data, consulting) to inform institution-specific scenario design.

Fully Specified, Transparent and Flexible

Our scenarios account for the latest economic data and conditions and are rigorously checked for accuracy. Our approach is fully specified, our equation outcomes are transparent, and further calibration of the models is performed when necessary to meet your unique needs.

Documented Methodology Proven With Regulators

Our methodology is fully documented. We provide a model validation package for better interaction with regulators when using modeling services from Moody’s Analytics. Our validation package was structured according to the guidelines provided by the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

Superior Support

We provide complete access to our dedicated team of analysts for help with the regulatory process. We also provide a highly trained customer service team to personally answer any question within minutes via phone, email or live chat. Our 90% renewal rate is a testament to our commitment to clients and unbending service standards.