Regulatory: U.S. Federal Reserve CCAR Scenarios

Expanded and regionalized forecast scenarios based on the Federal Reserve's CCAR projections that are produced, vetted and maintained by an authoritative source.

Meet the Federal Reserve's requirements with confidence using fully expanded and regionalized CCAR (Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review) forecast scenarios that are produced, vetted and maintained by an authoritative source. We construct a plausible narrative based on the forecasts provided by the Fed and an understanding of the key threats to the global economy.

Expanded and Regionalized

We run the Fed's projections through our macro, regional and specialized forecast services, covering more than 1,800 variables for modeling various asset classes, many of which are not available elsewhere. They include personal consumption expenditure, auto sales, retail sales, debt-service burden, bankruptcy rates, interest rates, initial claims, etc. Beyond our databases, clients are also able to run our scenarios through our loss-forecasting and stress-testing solutions.


Complete set of regulatory scenarios:

  • Moody's Analytics U.S. Fed CCAR Scenarios (Baseline, Adverse and Severely Adverse Scenarios)
  • Moody's Analytics Constant Severity Scenario (Independent of current business cycle conditions)
  • Moody's Analytics Baseline and Standard Alternative Scenarios

Available for the following services:

  • Global Macro Forecast Database
  • U.S. Macro Forecast Database
  • U.S. State Forecast Database
  • U.S. Metro Forecast Database
  • Case-Shiller® Home Price Index Forecasts

Moody's CreditCycle™

  • Fully transparent, back-tested and documented econometric loss-forecasting models customized to client-specific portfolios.
Moody's Economic Scenario Accelerator
  • Turn-key platform for custom economic scenarios based on your own assumptions.

Clients can leverage our extensive expertise (research, models, data, consulting) in conjunction with their internal information systems (sales and/or loan volumes, delinquencies, sensitivity or elasticity analysis, etc.) to optimize their decision making and meet regulatory requirements. We have a team of experts dedicated to helping clients with the CCAR process.

Transparent, Timely and Fully Documented

We furnish a detailed methodology for validation purposes and provide complete access to our analysts so that you may fully understand the underlying assumptions. Providing best in class service, along with complete economic and product understanding is our highest priority and our commitment to you.

Dedicated Team

We have a team of experts dedicated to helping clients with the CCAR process. They leverage the best-in-class modeling and analytical expertise of nearly 80 economists with extensive expertise in national and regional data management and forecasting. Our forecasts and scenarios are fully documented, rigorously checked for accuracy, and updated monthly, reflecting the latest economic conditions.


Sohini Chowdhury is an assistant director with Moody's Analytics. She prepares custom macro scenarios for financial services clients for CCAR submission, using the Moody's Analytics macroeconomic model. She also edits the monthly Northeast publication. She holds a Ph.D. and a M.S. in economics from Purdue University.


Edward Friedman is a director at Moody's Analytics. Dr. Friedman prepares alternative macroeconomic forecasts for the Moody's Analytics baseline utilizing the 1,500-equation macroeconomic model, edits monthly regional and macroeconomic publications, produces forecasts and writes monthly summaries of the U.S. financial industry.


Cristian deRitis is a senior director at Moody's Analytics. He performs consumer credit modeling and analysis with the Credit Analytics group and contributes to the analysis for and other publications. He received a Ph.D. and a M.A. in economics from Johns Hopkins University.


Tony Hughes is managing director of Credit Analytics at Moody's Analytics, where he manages the company's credit analysis consulting projects for global lending institutions. An expert applied econometrician, Dr. Hughes oversees the Moody's CreditCycle solution and products.