U.S. State Forecast Model

Structural economic forecasting modeling platform for custom scenario analysis.

The U.S. State Forecast Model platform enables clients to use Moody's Analytics forecast data to create and analyze "what if" scenarios based on their own assumptions, to view the impact of shocks at the state level. Individual models are available for all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Guam, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

Applications

The U.S. State Forecast Model has broad appeal among customers from different industries such as commercial real estate, utility, local governments, consumer lending, and retail, etc. Applications include:

  • Stress-testing your portfolio
  • Forming contingency plans
  • Evaluating shocks
  • Preparing forecasts based on your corporate assumptions
  • Link the U.S. State Model to your own models
  • Link the U.S. State Model to the U.S. Macro Model:
    • Import pre made alternative scenarios from the U.S. Macro Model and observe their impact on the state
    • Create user-defined macro scenarios and observe their effect on a state
    • Model the statewide impact of a global oil shock
    • Model the statewide impact of a lower federal funds rate

Key Features

Models reflect the U.S. Macro Model baseline forecast and are updated every month. You can create your own scenarios such as housing effects, escalating business costs, tax rate increases, natural disasters

  • Web-based—no software to download or purchase
  • No mnemonics to learn—just point and click
  • Access readily available series information on the equations and add-factors
  • Linking to the U.S. Macro Model
  • Trace through the linkages—which variables affect one another
  • Chart across scenarios for easy comparison

Model Attributes

  • Variables: More than 200 variables, including components of income and credit quality conditions not found in other large-scale models
  • Forecast horizon: 30 years
  • Updates: Monthly forecast and scenario updates