RPS - Moody's Analytics House Price Forecasts



Forward-looking view of Canadian house price trends under baseline forecasts and stressed scenarios.

Moody’s Analytics has partnered with RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading provider of Canadian residential real estate valuation and business intelligence, to create trusted house price forecasts for Canada. The RPS Real Property Solutions - Moody's Analytics House Price Forecasts simulate the path of Canadian house prices under a range of economic scenarios, enabling clients to assess future risks and opportunities for their business and investments.

Applications

  • Measure risk exposure to residential real estate.
  • Spot emerging risks and uncover weaknesses.
  • Model prepayments and default.
  • Update mortgage pool collateral values.
  • Better manage customer retention and marketing.
  • Target growth areas by leveraging local market insight.
  • Conduct more localized and precise analyses.
  • Determine the impact of downturns as required by regulators.
  • Use as input for reporting to regulators, executives, board of directors and investors (if public).
  • Calculate capital allocations, which in turn determine management actions and distributions.
  • Stress test portfolios and validate internal models.

Key Features

  • Forecasts for 33 metropolitan areas, 10 provinces and 1 national forecast. Dimensions include 3 property styles: aggregate, single-family detached and condo/apartment.
  • Forecasts are based on fully specified regional econometric models that account for both housing supply-demand dynamics and long-term influences on house prices.
  • Baseline forecast and and six scenarios are updated on a monthly basis, with a economic narrative for each.
  • We furnish a detailed methodology and provide complete access to our analysts so that clients can understand the inputs and outputs.
  • Clients can choose from multiple delivery options to suit their needs, or use our Data Buffet platform.
  • We provide a highly trained team to personally answer any question within minutes via phone, email or live chat.

Historical Price Index

For enhanced market visibility, the RPS Real Property Solution historical data are available separately, as well as the complete monthly historical dataset covering an additional1 1,500 neighbourhoods, 1,000 cities/towns, and two additional property styles (row/town house and semi-detached).

  • The index provides a single source of broad, deep and detailed house price trend information, updated monthly.
  • The index employs a stratification methodology and calculates a self-adjusting moving-window median value for discrete geographic areas.
  • The methodology provides trends at lower levels, resulting in the most comprehensive national index available in Canada.

1 The boundaries used in the datasets are based on Statistics Canada and Canada Post boundaries. Metropolitan cities are Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs), towns and cities are Census Sub-Divisions (CSDs), and neighbourhoods are Forward Sortation Areas (FSAs).