Forecast: U.S. Macro + Alt Scenarios

Economic, demographic and financial data, forecasts and alternative scenarios for the U.S.

Moody’s Analytics U.S. Macro Forecast Database with Alternative Scenarios, offer clients a baseline forecast that represents the estimate of the most likely path for the respective economy through the current business cycle (50% probability that economic conditions will be worse and 50% probability that economic conditions will be better), as well as up to eight standard alternative scenarios to examine how different types of shocks will affect the future performance of the U.S. economy.

This service is also available with regulatory scenarios for loss-forecasting and stress-testing portfolios based on projections provided by the Federal Reserve.


The 30-year projections are updated on a monthly basis and include standard national income accounts (GDP), as well as trade, government, households, business investments, financial markets, demographics and prices.

All stages of our forecasting process, from data collection through forecast validation, are managed and documented by our expert team of more than 80 economists and 30 data specialists.

  • Coverage: U.S.
  • Variables: More than 1,800, including employment, prices, interest rates, banking, credit quality, construction, industry and demographics.
  • Periodicity: Quarterly
  • Updates: Monthly
  • Forecast: 30 years + Alternative Scenarios (Regulatory scenario package also available)