Czechia - Business Confidence

Czechia: Business Confidence

Mnemonic CIB.ICZE
Unit Balance of Opinion, NSA
Adjustments Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 81.58 %
Data Mar 2023 6.9
Feb 2023 3.8

Series Information

Source The Czech Statistical Office (CZSO)
Release Business Confidence Indicators
Frequency Monthly
Start Date 1/31/1975
End Date 3/31/2023

Czechia: Business

Reference Last Previous Units Frequency
Business Confidence Mar 2023 6.9 3.8 Balance of Opinion, NSA Monthly
Capacity Utilization 2023 Q1 80.9 80.5 %, SA Quarterly
Industrial Production Jan 2023 111.41 111.66 Index 2015=100, NSA Monthly
Change in Inventories 2022 Q4 105,297 103,324 Mil. CZK, CDASA Quarterly
Real Change in Inventories 2022 Q4 61,750 63,060 Mil. Ch. 2015 CZK, CDASA Quarterly

Release Information

Business cycle surveys carried out in the enterprise sphere are an important source of information in the countries the economy of which is based on market relations; they provide information on expected tendencies in the development of main areas of enterprise economy in the nearest future. They are important especially because they show the atmosphere in enterprise environment and provide information well in advance and thus serve to identification of turning points in economy and provide information also for such areas that are difficult to describe by quantity data. In that sense business cycle surveys are organized and used in countries with developed market economy already for decades.

Business cycle surveys - methodology

Since business cycle and consumer surveys are an important part of the information system used in the EU for monitoring of economic trends, they are included in priorities for macroeconomic statistics. Questions are harmonised with the requirements and recommendations of international institutions (European Commission DG ECFIN, OECD) and results of the surveys are part of materials of these institutions and are used for international comparisons.

Quality surveys in industry, construction, trade, on investments, services and among consumers are carried out for already many years in all countries of the Euro-zone, in transition economies and other OECD countries. The intention of further improvement is to constantly enlarge the database of results of the European Commission DG ECFIN and OECD, to ensure harmonisation of variables, presentation and dissemination of the results, methodological transparency and international comparability and utilisation of the survey results for cyclic analysis of economic development and construction of leading indicators in the highest possible number of countries.

The questionnaire for business cycle surveys is very simple so that the management of an enterprise can fill it in fast and answers can be obtained immediately even as far as urgent and topical questions are concerned. The questionnaires contain questions regarding expected and running tendencies. Questions are put in the form of evaluation scales, mostly with three possible alternatives of answers such as improvement, constancy, worsening, and the like. Evaluation of the results is made as a summary of the questions in individual alternatives; a clear expression of tendencies is business cycle balance, which is the difference between the answers “improvement” and “worsening” expressed in percents. The higher the positive balance of answers the more optimistic is the evaluation of the answer obtained.

Even at harmonisation of questions in questionnaires recommended by the EC – DG ECFIN and OECD the system of business cycle surveys is open and it is possible to apply also questions on other topical ranges of problems and important topics, etc.

The results are presented both as a verbal analysis and in the form of tables, graphs and business cycle mirrors. They are both the summary and results at various levels and types of classification. Time series of the results are seasonally adjusted regularly each month and from the results simple and complex development indicators according to the methodology of the European Commission DG ECFIN are compiled.

Methodological explanatory notes

The composite confidence indicator (Economic Sentiment Indicator) is a weighted average of seasonally adjusted confidence indicators in industry, construction, trade, in selected services and of the consumer confidence indicator.

The business confidence indicator is a weighted average of seasonally adjusted confidence indicators in industry, construction, trade and in selected services.

The consumer confidence indicator is the average of four indicators (expected financial situation of consumers, expected total economic situation, expected total unemployment (with inverted sign) and savings expected in 12 months to come).

Since January 2006, new weighting system is being used for construction of composite confidence indicator and business confidence indicator: confidence indicator in industry has weight 40%, confidence indicator in construction and trade 5% each, confidence indicator in selected services 30% and consumer confidence indicator has 20% weight in composite confidence indicator. The time series are recalculated backwards to May 2002 (start of the business cycle survey in selected services). Additionally, since January 2006, the average of 2005 is a base of basic indices of confidence indicators; data are recalculated and comparable.

The branch confidence indicators are constructed as averages of seasonally adjusted weighted business cycle balances. The business cycle balance is the percentage difference between the responses “growth (+)” and “fall (-)”.

The confidence indicator for industry is the average of seasonally adjusted balances of three indicators (the assessment of total demand, assessment of stocks of final production (with inverted sign) and the expected development of production activity). The confidence indicator for construction is the average of two indicators (the assessment of total demand and the expected development of employment).

Data is subjected to revisions