|Adjustments||Not Seasonally Adjusted|
|Source||Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ)|
|Business Confidence||Apr 2019||-37.5||-38||%, NSA||Monthly|
|Capacity Utilization||Apr 2019||4.2||5.4||%, NSA||Monthly|
|Change in Inventories||2018 Q4||-130||233||Mil. NZD, SA||Quarterly|
|Real Change in Inventories||2018 Q4||105||148||Mil. Ch. 2009/2010 NZD, SA||Quarterly|
Business Outlook is designed to provide a snapshot of business opinions regarding the expected future state of their business and the New Zealand economy overall. The survey provides useful coincident information on the economy and is timelier than official statistics.
Business Outlook is aimed at all business sectors and at all business sizes, since together this better represents the New Zealand economy (which is made up of many small and medium-sized firms) than large corporations alone. By surveying the entire spectrum of businesses types and sizes, not only can National Bank better serve its clients, but both market analysts and businesses people can garner a variety of information about business views at different points of the business cycle.
Description and Uses
Business Outlook is a sample survey. That is; only a proportion of the economy is used to represent the economy as a whole. Many official statistics are calculated in a similar manner; therefore – from a theoretical viewpoint – the survey process is not unusual.
Business Outlook is a monthly survey with around 700 respondents.1 Each firm self-selects its business sector, region of residence, and firm size.2 And despite the survey’s apparent paucity, the sampling is stratified and collectively exhaustive. Thus, it is less variable and more reliable than a random population sample. Figures 3 and 4 illustrate how encompassing this self-sampling is.
The survey itself asks a variety of questions. For example:3
- a firm’s confidence in future business conditions in 12 month’s time;
- a firm’s view of where activity in their own firm is heading a year hence;
- a firm’s opinion surrounding the expected future movement in unemployment and employment, interest rates, investment in property, plant and equipment, and profits in a year’s time;
- a firm’s expectation of their product’s price(s) in 3 months time; and
- the expected level of annual inflation in 12 month’s time.
For the sectors that apply, the survey asks:
- in which direction a firm anticipates their export volumes will move and the expected change in livestock investment in 12 month’s time;
- in which direction a firm expects their utilisation of capacity to move in 12 month’s time; and
- for an indication of the expected change in residential and non-residential building activity in 12 months time.
Data is revised when new data becomes available.