Switzerland - Business Confidence





Switzerland: Business Confidence

Mnemonic CIB.ICHE
Unit Index 2010 to 2019=100, NSA
Adjustments Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly 4.42 %
Data Aug 2022 86.5
Jul 2022 90.5

Series Information

Source KOF Swiss Economic Institute
Release KOF Economic Barometer
Frequency Monthly
Start Date 1/31/1991
End Date 8/31/2022

Switzerland: Business

Reference Last Previous Units Frequency
Industrial Production 2022 Q3 124.34 129.49 Index 2015=100, NSA Quarterly
Business Confidence Aug 2022 86.5 90.5 Index 2010 to 2019=100, NSA Monthly
Change in Inventories 2022 Q2 6,104 -1,729 Mil. CHF, CDASA Quarterly

Release Information

The KOF Economic Barometer is a composite leading indicator for the Swiss economy. Monthly from 1991.

Active:

  • Source name: Vintage 2022
  • Measurement: Fixed-base index relative to prior 10-year period (Index 2012 to 2021=100)
  • Adjustment: Not seasonally adjusted (NSA)
  • Native frequency: Monthly
  • Start date: 1991m1
  • Geo coverage: Country

Predecessors:

  • "Vintage 2021," 2010 to 2019=100 - 1991m1 to 2022m8 (archive specifier "_19")
  • "Vintage 2019," 2009 to 2018=100 - 1991m1 to 2020m10 ("_18")
  • "Vintage 2018," 2008 to 2017=100 - 1991m1 to 2019m8 ("_17")
  • 2007 to 2016=100 - 1991m1 to 2018m8 ("_16")
  • 2006 to 2015=100 - 1991m1 to 2017m8 ("_15")
  • 2003 to 2012=100 - 1991m1 to 2016m8 ("_14")
  • 1990m1 to 2014m5 ("_13")

Since the 1970s, the KOF Swiss Economic Institute has published a leading composite indicator, the KOF Economic Barometer, predicting how the Swiss economy should perform in the near future. The methodology was overhauled in 1998, 2006 and 2014.

As of 2019, it is synthesized from over 345 indicator variables selected from a pool of more than 600 candidates. Every year the source may choose to change the composition and weighting of the index. The chosen variables best meet these two criteria: They (a) have an economically plausible influence and (b) have a certain lead time of a relevant strength over the economic trend.

KOF updates the set of underlying indicators and their weights annually after the release of previous year’s annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO). 

The reference series is the smoothed continuous growth rate of Swiss GDP distributed across the three months of a quarter, based on the official quarterly real GDP statistics, adjusted for the effects of major international sporting events, released by the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) in early September.

Each year in the autumn, after release of Swiss GDP, the source produces a new vintage of the Barometer. New components are selected, the base period is advanced by one year, and the full history is revised.

Usually the base period is advanced each year, and KOF's "vintage" name is one year after the last year in the base period. However, Vintages 2020 and 2021 use the same base period (viz., 2010m1 to 2019m12) because of the COVID-19 global pandemic.

Further reading

At the source:

Documents are not dated.