|Unit||Vol. Index 2000=100, NSA|
|Adjustments||Not Seasonally Adjusted|
|Industrial Production||Oct 2019||144.54||136.92||Vol. Index 2000=100, NSA||Monthly|
|Business Confidence||2019 Q3||37.3||40.5||Index Number, NSA||Quarterly|
|Change in Inventories||2019 Q3||-65,425||-74,219||Mil. PHP, NSA||Quarterly|
|Real Change in Inventories||2019 Q3||-26,360||-28,657||Mil. 2000 PHP, NSA||Quarterly|
|I.1 Historical Background|
The earliest version of the MISSI is the SKEM (Survey of Key Enterprises in Manufacturing), which had its inception in 1981 as a project of the National Accounts Staff of National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA). Initially, indicators/indices generated by the SKEM had 1981 as the base period. In 1986, the responsibility for the SKEM was transferred to the Economic Census Division of the National Census and Statistics Office (now the National Statistics Office-NSO). At NSO, the management of the survey was transferred from one different divisions to another when sometime in early 1988 the SKEM was reassigned to the Manufacturing Division. Work on the rebasing the MISSI series to 1985 was completed during this period. The 1986 index series was the first to have 1985 as the base year.
With the restructuring of the NSO in 1997, responsibility of the SKEM was again transferred to the newly created Economic Indices and Indicators Division (EIID). Under its leadership, arrangement for the integration of the SKEM and Department of Trade and Industry's Monthly Industrial Survey (MIS) materialized. The new survey was thus called MISSI and expanded to include additional information on inventory, capacity utilization, etc. Work on the rebasing of the MISSI indicators to 1994 base year also started, but was completed at a few years after.
It was later felt that to effectively monitor the performance of the manufacturing industries, the samples for the Annual Survey of Establishments (ASE) and MISSI for the manufacturing sector be managed by one statistical group. Management again decided in 2001 to return the MISSI to the Industry Statistics Division (Manufacturing Section), which handles the ASE for manufacturing. In that same year, the rebased MISSI series with 1994 as the base year was officially released.
The release of the 1985-based series continued on until December 2001 and was permanently discontinued in 2002.
True to the objectives of the SKEM, the MISSI continues to regularly provide timely flash indicators that monitor the performance of growth- oriented industries in the manufacturing sector.
|I.3. Features of the MISSI|
The MISSI is a non-probability sample survey of manufacturing establishments. Selection of sample units for this survey is done purposively so as to include only the large establishments or the so-called industry leaders.
The survey is conducted monthly nationwide using a shuttle questionnaire that provides the respondents with a running account of the previous months' data for one year.
For the year 2004, the survey covered some 521sample establishments, of which about 62 percent were located in Metro-Manila.
|I.4. Rebasing to 1994|
The 1994 rebasing of the MISSI involves the following activities:
There are 20 major sector groupings in the 1994 rebased MISSI, and eight (8) of these are presented by sub-sectors, totaling 34 sub-sectors.
These industry groupings were so selected in conformance to the National Income Accounts groupings. Data on total value of products sold of large manufacturing establishments (average total employment of 10 and over) were used to compute the concentration ratio of each sector/sub-sector. Data on value of products sold were based on the results of the 1994 Census of Establishments (CE).
The weight of each sector/sub-sector is equivalent to the proportion of that sector/sub-sector's contribution to value of production of the major sector/sector where it belongs. Data of value of production were derived from the results of the 1994 CE for manufacturing. Thus, weight (Wi) of sub-sector (i) is computed as follows:
|I.5. Updating of Sample Establishments|
The number of sample manufacturing establishments covered in the MISSI are updated at the start of each survey year in order to make the sample establishments more representative of the industry. This is done by including large establishments that were not previously taken as samples but found in the latest available NSO List of Establishments (LE). Other secondary sources include the list of top 1000 corporations, among others. The lists of ASPBI and QSPBI samples are also sources of obtaining the list of new samples and/or replacements. The basis for replacement or inclusion as new samples is the similarity in industrial activity.
Those sample establishments that have ceased operation and were strike during the previous year's survey were deleted from the survey. Also deleted from the list were establishments found to be �small' in terms of employment size and those considered as entirely delinquent respondents.
|I.6. Survey Questionnaire and Content|
Editing and validation of entries in the questionnaire are done manually by subject matter specialists of the Industry Statistics Division of NSO. Indices at the sectoral and selected sub-sector levels as well as the computation of the value relatives are done by the use of microcomputer.
The questionnaire is a shuttle type and contains the establishment information for all months of the year. Items of information collected from the establishments include the following:
Since some of the MISSI samples are also samples in the quarterly survey or QSPBI, the items on employment, compensation and net sales are included in the MISSI questionnaire to suit the requirements of the QSPBI.
Each month, the Statistical Researcher visits the establishments bringing with him a copy of the MISSI questionnaire and copies the data appearing in the establishments' copy of the questionnaire.
|I.7. Derived Indicators|
From the items of data collected in the questionnaire, the following are the indicators derived for the MISSI:
Initially, the base period for all indices was January 1981. Starting with the 1986 indices, the base year was moved to 1985. The latest series of the indices have been adjusted to 1994 as the base year, having the 1998 indices as its earliest series.
The monthly indices on production are presented by selected industry groups following the 3-digit (sectoral) and 4-digit (sub-sectoral) levels of the 1994 PSIC.
Of the 20 major sectors in MISSI, eight (8) industry sectors, namely, food, textile, wood and wood products, chemicals, petroleum products, non-metallic mineral products, basic metals and electrical machinery have corresponding sub-sectors while the rest have none.
The procedures used in the computation of the indices are as follows:
Sub-Sectoral Level and for Sectors with no corresponding sub-sectors
Later, the formula was modified to allow for changes in the composition of the sample establishments under each sector/sub-sector, as follows:
Sectoral Level with corresponding sub-sectors (Food, Textile, Wood and Wood products, Chemicals, Petroleum products, Non-Metallic Mineral Products, Basic Metals, Electrical Machinery)
Weighted growth rates are computed to show the changes in the index over two points in time; i.e. month-on-month and year-on-year.
The VoPI for each industry group is derived indirectly by dividing VaPI by PPI, that is, VoPI = VaPI / PPI x 100. The VoPI for total manufacturing is derived as the weighted VoPI for all industry groups. Refer to Section 2.11 for PPI methodology.
Average Capacity utilization rate (CUj) by sector is obtained by the following formula:
Average capacity utilization rate for total manufacturing (C.U.k) is obtained by:
Imputation of missing values in a particular month is resorted to only for cases of non-responses. Data for these non-responding samples are estimated based on established imputation methods, i.e. historical imputation (with or without trend adjustment), etc. Establishments that are reported as on strike, temporarily out of business, or stopped operation are given zero production values for the month/s reported, when verified to be so.
|I.10. Dissemination of Results|
Preliminary results of the MISSI are made available 55 days after each reference month at the NSO website: http://www.census.gov.ph. Copies of the data series are also available in floppy disks, CDs or in printed copies upon request. Revisions to the preliminary figures are reflected in the succeeding monthly issue.
The following policies on the revision of the monthly data series are being adopted as follows:
Source of information: http://www.census.gov.ph/data/technotes/notemissi_new.html