South Korea - Consumer Confidence

The monthly Consumer Survey conducted by the Bank of Korea assesses near-term consumer sentiment in South Korea. Data Buffet carries the Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (CCSI), select subindexes from 1995, demographic detail from 2008, and inflation expectations and perceptions.

Active:

• Measurements:
  • Diffusion index with central value of 100 (Dif. Index=100)
  • Percent share (%)
  • Percent per annum (% p.a.)
• Adjustment: Not seasonally adjusted (NSA)
• Native frequency: Monthly
• Start dates:
  • As early as 1995m1
  • Uniformly 2013m1 for inflation

Predecessors:

• Inflation -0.5 to 6.5 % p.a. in 9 brackets - 2008m4 to 2012m12 ("_12")
• Inflation -0.5 to 6.5 % p.a. in 6 brackets - 2006m7 to 2008m3 ("_08")

The Consumer Survey polls approximately 2,000 households in 56 cities, by mail and telephone.

There are 17 survey items in five groups. For economic situation, household spending, and savings and debt of households, "current" is relative to six months earlier, and "prospective" is six months hence. For prices, the interval is one year past and hence.

Some survey responses are summarized as diffusion indexes, which are conceptually similar to balance of opinion. A reading above (below) 100 for any individual index signifies that households that answered positively (negatively) outweighed the opposite, i.e., the "central value" is 100. A CSI of 100 is relative to the standardization period of January 2003 to December 2015. Each CSI is computed as a weighted average of the five possible survey responses (positive, neutral, negative).

For inflation expectations and perceptions, there is a "total" figure (the aggregate inflation rate) and a statistical distribution of survey responses, i.e., percent response along a spectrum of rate-buckets, plus a "no idea" bucket. The spectrum (limits and width) is subject to redefinition.

From KOSIS:

CSI = [(very positive×1.0+somewhat positive×0.5+similar×0.0 -somewhat negative×0.5-very negative×1.0)/total number of households surveyed× 100]+100

Current: current situation compared to that six months earlier.

Prospective: six months ahead in comparison with the current time.

Prospective prices, prospective housing prices, prospective wages - one year ahead in comparison with the current time.

The Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (CCSI) is composed of six major CSIs, including those for current living standards, prospective household income and prospective spending, all of which are standardized. The composite index is used to gauge overall consumer sentiment.

For the expected inflation subset: "The previously published time series (July 2008 ~ December 2012) were revised following improvements in the survey method, including non-response weight adjustment."

Concurrent with dissemination of results for January 2016, the CCSI was revised back to June 2015, with this explanation: "The previously published CCSI time series have been revised by extension of the standardization interval (from 2003~2014 to 2003~2015)."

Source labeling

The press release is titled "Consumer Survey" but the ECOS table is titled "Consumer Survey Index," despite containing series that are not indexes, e.g., inflation perceptions. We speculate that title-strings are constructed dynamically and so do not handle special cases.

Further reading

At Bank of Korea:

Each monthly press release contains a full methodology. Note: Because the metadata pages as the Bank of Korea do not provide deeplinks, we have instead provided breadcrumbs.

• 100 key indicators: Composite Consumer Sentiment Index
• Consumer Survey for August 2022
• Consumer Survey for December 2016 (in English)
• ECOS » 6.2 Consumer Survey Index (as of Oct 2022)
• ECOS » Select statistic classification: 9.2.1 Consumer Survey Index » Metadata
• MetaData » Consumer Survey Index (CSI)

At Statistics Korea:

• Consumer Survey Index (Expected Inflation) (National) data table
• Consumer Survey Index (BOK, National) (Monthly) data table

• 28 Dec 2022, Phillip Thorne - Further reading