United States - Weekly Leading Index - Growth Rate

United States: Weekly Leading Index - Growth Rate

Unit %
Friday Weekly 5.03 %
Data 29 Jul 2022 -13.36
22 Jul 2022 -12.72

Series Information

Source Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
Release ECRI Weekly Leading Index
Frequency Weekly Friday
Start Date 1/4/1968
End Date 7/28/2022

United States: Business

Reference Last Previous Units Frequency
Business Confidence Aug 2022 99.81 99.92 Index long term avg=100, SA Monthly
Capacity Utilization Aug 2022 79.96 80.2 %, SA Monthly
Industrial Production Aug 2022 104.55 104.72 Index 2017=100, SA Monthly
Purchasing Managers index Aug 2022 52.8 52.8 Diffusion index, SA Monthly
Change in Inventories 2022 Q2 130,583 237,511 Mil. USD, SAAR Quarterly
Real Change in Inventories 2022 Q2 83,885 188,476 Mil. Ch. 2012 USD, SAAR Quarterly

Release Information

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) is a high-frequency leading index of U.S. economic growth, available very promptly to the general public. It directly addresses concerns about the freshness of data that forecasters have with existing leading indicators, including the well-known monthly Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), originally developed by ECRI’s founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, for the U.S. Commerce Department.

The WLI resolves these issues by being available promptly and frequently: each Friday morning the WLI is updated with data through the previous week. The WLI represents the latest in a long series of advances made since the introduction of the original leading index in the 1960s.

Key advantages include:
Frequency – the WLI is available every week, rather than monthly, allowing for closer monitoring of the U.S. economic cycle.
Promptness – the WLI is extremely prompt. Each Friday morning the WLI is updated through the previous week, i.e., there is less than a one-week publication lag.
Composite index method – an improved method of composite index construction is used (Geoffrey Moore and Julius Shiskin developed the original LEI method). The result is a more clearly cyclical index with increased sensitivity at economic cycle turning points.
Revisions – only one component (money supply) out of seven is subject to significant revision.
Leads – before recessions, the WLI turns down before other leading indexes. Given its prompt availability, its effective lead is even longer. In fact, it is the only publicly available leading index with a real-time record of predicting the last three recessions. It has a median lead of ten months at business cycle peaks and three months at business cycle troughs, and has the lowest variability of leads at business cycle peaks and troughs

The growth rate for the weekly leading index is calculated and provided to us by the ECRI. The growth rate is proprietary and it is not made evident the calculation (or moving average) behind the growth rate.