|Unit||Index 1980Q1=100, NSA|
|Adjustments||Not Seasonally Adjusted|
|Building Completions||Oct 2018||1,111||1,149||Ths., SAAR||Monthly|
|House Price Value for Existing Homes||Oct 2018||261.74||259.79||Ths. USD, SA||Monthly|
|Residential Building Permits||Oct 2018||1,263||1,270||Ths. #, SAAR||Monthly|
|Residential Housing Starts||Oct 2018||1,228||1,210||Ths. #, SAAR||Monthly|
|House Price Value for New Homes||Sep 2018||315,877||323,952||$, SA||Monthly|
|House Price Index||2018 Q2||424.05||414.22||Index 1980Q1=100, NSA||Quarterly|
|Dwelling Stocks||2017||137,403||136,312||Ths. #||Annual|
For the U.S., the FHFA house price index is a quarterly index that measures average changes in housing prices at the regional and state levels as well as nationwide, based on sales or refinancing's of single-family homes whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.
The house-price index is a weighted repeat sales index, meaning that it measures average price changes in repeat sales or refinancing's on single-family properties. The mortgages measured by the house price index are both conforming and conventional. Conforming refers to a mortgage that both meets the underwriting guidelines of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac and that does not exceed the conforming loan limit, a figure linked to an index published by the Federal Housing Finance Board. The conforming loan limit for mortgages purchased in 2007 was $417,000. Legislation enacted in February 2008 has raised the limit on a temporary basis to as much as $729,750 in high cost areas in the continental United States. Conventional means that the mortgages are neither insured nor guaranteed by the FHA, VA, or other federal government entities.
In an Economic Letter written by the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Economists there proposed to measure the fundamental value of housing using the price-rent ratio.
The San Francisco Federal reserve borrowed an approach from finance literature. The finance paradigm holds that an asset has a fundamental value that equals the sum of its future payoffs, each discounted back to the present by investors using rates that reflect their preferences. For stocks, the payoffs requiring discounting are the expected dividends. This approach can extend to housing by recognizing that a house yields a dividend in the form of the roof over the head of the occupant. The fundamental value of a house is the present value of the future housing service flows that it provides to the marginal buyer. In a well-functioning market, the value of the housing service flow should be approximated by the rental value of the house.
A bubble occurs—in either the stock market or the housing market—when the current price of an asset deviates from its fundamental value. Right away we see that bubbles are difficult to detect because fundamental value is fundamentally unobservable. No one knows for sure what future dividends are going to be, or what discount rates investors will require on assets. Despite this obstacle, analysts still find it helpful to construct measures of fundamental value for comparison to actual valuations. One popular measure is the price-dividend ratio, which corresponds to a price-rent ratio for houses.
The price series is the existing home sales price index published by FHFA; this index is a repeat sales index, meaning that index changes are compiled from the price changes on individual houses that turn over during the sample period. One of its drawbacks is that it does not fully differentiate between pure house price appreciation and price changes due to depreciation or home improvement. The rent series is the owner’s equivalent rent index published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); this series is intended to measure changes in the service flow value of owner-occupied housing.
The series HXPRQis equal to:
* Moody's Analytics is estimating the FHFA housing price index using the 2000 CBSAs. The estimates are used in the calculation of the price-to-rent ratio until the CPI is updated to the new metro areas.
The data are revised every quarter.
On occasion, FHFA will extend the history of select geos.
The source writes:
How and why is the HPI revised each quarter?
Historical estimates of the HPI revise for three primary reasons:
In connection with the release of the 2012Q2 HPI results, a special revision was made to two historical HPI values. In prior releases, the all-transactions index values for Vermont-1976Q1 and West Virginia-1982Q1 were both reported to be 100.01. Those values were not correct; index values for those respective periods should have been set to missing because no modeling data were available in the underlying sample. The HPI releases for 2012Q2 and later periods reflect the change.
Data revision with 2012Q2 release
With the release of the 2012Q2 data a small but notable revision was made to how the HPI is calculated. The revision impacts the all transactions index (HOFHOPI) at the state and national level for the full history of the series (back to 1975Q1).
Prior to the release of 2012Q2 data, the "sales prices" used in connection with a purchase-money mortgage was calculated value based on mortgage's loan-to-value (LTV) ratio and the loan amount. The loan amount was divided by the LTV ratio and the result was used as the measure of the actual selling price. With the release of the 2012Q2 data, FHFA has begun using the property sales price as reported in the Enterprises' data submissions.
For more information on the methodological change please see the source document below starting on page 19.
The source writes:
1. What is the value of the HPI?
The HPI is a broad measure of the movement of single-family house prices. It serves as a timely, accurate indicator of house price trends at various geographic levels. It also provides housing economists with an analytical tool that is useful for estimating changes in the rates of mortgage defaults, prepayments and housing affordability in specific geographic areas. The HPI is a measure designed to capture changes in the value of single-family houses in the U.S. as a whole, in various regions and in smaller areas. The HPI is published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) using data provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), one of FHFA’s predecessor agencies, began publishing the HPI in the fourth quarter of 1995.
2. What transactions are covered in the HPI?
The House Price Index is based on transactions involving conforming, conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included. Conforming refers to a mortgage that both meets the underwriting guidelines of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac and that does not exceed the conforming loan limit. For loans originated in 2009, the loan limit was set by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. That Act, in conjuction with prior legislation, provided for loan limits up to $729,750 for one-unit properties in certain high-cost areas in the contiguous United States.
Conventional mortgages are those that are neither insured nor guaranteed by the FHA, VA, or other federal government entities. Mortgages on properties financed by government-insured loans, such as FHA or VA mortgages, are excluded from the HPI, as are properties with mortgages whose principal amount exceeds the conforming loan limit. Mortgage transactions on condominiums, cooperatives, multi-unit properties, and planned unit developments are also excluded.
3. How is the HPI computed?
The HPI is a weighted, repeat-sales index, meaning that it measures average price changes in repeat sales or refinancings on the same properties. This information is obtained by reviewing repeat mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac since January 1975. The HPI is updated each quarter as additional mortgages are purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The new mortgage acquisitions are used to identify repeat transactions for the most recent quarter and for each quarter since the first quarter of 1975.
4. How often is the HPI published?
A full release is provided every three months, approximately two months after the end of the previous quarter. Beginning in March 2008, OFHEO began publishing monthly indexes for Census Divisions and the United States. FHFA continues publishing and updating these indexes each month.
5. How is the HPI updated?
Each month, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac provide FHFA with information on their most recent mortgage transactions. These data are combined with the data from previous periods to establish price differentials on properties where more than one mortgage transaction has occurred. The data are merged, creating an updated historical database that is then used to estimate the HPI.
6. How do I interpret “four-quarter,” “one-year,” “annual,” and “one-quarter” price changes?
The “four-quarter” percentage change in home values is simply the price change relative to the same quarter one year earlier. For example, if the HPI release is for the second quarter, then the “four-quarter” price change reports the percentage change in values relative to the second quarter of the prior year. It reflects the best estimate for how much the value of a typical property increased over the four-quarter period (FAQ #2 reports the types of properties included in this estimate). “One-year” and “annual” appreciation are used synonymously with “four-quarter” appreciation in the full quarterly HPI releases.
Similar to the “four-quarter” price changes, the “one-quarter” percentage change estimates the percentage change in home values relative to the prior quarter. Please note that, in estimating the quarter price index, all observations within a given quarter are pooled together; no distinction is made between transactions occurring in different months. As such, the “four-quarter” and “one-quarter” changes compare typical values throughout a quarter against valuations during a prior quarter. The appreciation rates do not compare values at the end of a quarter against values at the end of a prior quarter.
7. How are Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and Metropolitan Divisions defined and what criteria are used to determine whether an MSA index is published?
MSAs are defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). If specified criteria are met and an MSA contains a single core population greater than 2.5 million, the MSA is divided into Metropolitan Divisions. The following MSAs have been divided into Metropolitan Divisions: Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH; Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI; Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX; Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI; Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA; Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL; New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA; Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD; San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA; Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA and Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV. For these MSAs, FHFA reports data for each Division, rather than the MSA as a whole. FHFA requires that an MSA (or Metropolitan Division) must have at least 1,000 total transactions before it may be published. Additionally, an MSA or Division must have had at least 10 transactions in any given quarter for that quarterly value to be published. Blanks are displayed where this criterion is not met.
8. Does FHFA use the November 2008 revised Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and Divisions?
Yes, FHFA uses the revised Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and Divisions as defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in December 2009. These MSAs and Divisions are based on Census data. According to OMB, an MSA comprises the central county or counties containing the core, plus adjacent outlying counties having a high degree of social and economic integration with the central county as measured through commuting. For information about the current MSAs, please visit: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/assets/bulletins/b10-02.pdf.
9. What geographic areas are covered by the House Price Index?
The HPI includes indexes for all nine Census Divisions, the 50 states and the District of Columbia, and every Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) in the U.S., excluding Puerto Rico. OMB recognizes 366 MSAs, 11 of which are subdivided into a total of 29 Metropolitan Divisions. As noted earlier, FHFA produces indexes for the Divisions where they are available, in lieu of producing a single index for the MSA. In total, 384 indexes are released: 355 for the MSAs that do not have Metropolitan Divisions and 29 Division indexes. The starting dates for indexes differ and are determined by a minimum transaction threshold; index values are not provided for periods before at least 1,000 transactions have been accumulated.
In each release, FHFA publishes rankings and quarterly, annual, and five-year rates of changes for the MSAs and Metropolitan Divisions that have at least 15,000 transactions over the prior 10 years. In this release, 301 MSAs and Metropolitan Divisions satisfy this criterion. For the remaining areas MSAs and Divisions, one-year and five-year rates of change are provided.
Additionally the FHFA publishes annual all-transactions HPI for selected ZIP codes. This data is updated quarterly.
10. Where can I access MSA index numbers and standard errors for each year and quarter?
In addition to the information displayed in the MSA tables, FHFA makes available MSA indexes and standard errors. The data are available in ASCII format and may be accessed at http://www.fhfa.gov/Default.aspx?Page=87.
11. Why is the HPI based on Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac mortgages?
FHFA has access to this information by virtue of its role as the federal regulator responsible for ensuring the financial safety and soundness of these government-sponsored enterprises. Chartered by Congress for the purpose of creating a reliable supply of mortgage funds for homebuyers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the largest mortgage finance institutions in the United States representing 40 percent of total outstanding mortgages.
12. How does the House Price Index differ from the Census Bureau’s Constant Quality House Price Index (CQHPI)?
The HPI published by FHFA covers far more transactions than the Commerce Department survey. The CQHPI covers sales of new homes and homes for sale, based on a sample of about 14,000 transactions annually, gathered through monthly surveys. The quarterly all-transactions HPI is based on more than 40 million repeat transaction pairs over 35 years. This gives a more accurate reflection of current property values than the Commerce index. The HPI also can be updated efficiently using data collected by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the normal course of their business activity.
13. How does the HPI differ from the S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price indexes?
Although both indexes employ the same fundamental repeat-valuations approach, there are a number of data and methodology differences. Among the dissimilarities:
a. The S&P/Case-Shiller indexes only use purchase prices in index calibration, while the all-transactions HPI also includes refinance appraisals. FHFA’s purchase-only series is restricted to purchase prices, as are the S&P/Case-Shiller indexes.
b. FHFA’s valuation data are derived from conforming, conventional mortgages provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The S&P/Case-Shiller indexes use information obtained from county assessor and recorder offices.
c. The S&P/Case-Shiller indexes are value-weighted, meaning that price trends for more expensive homes have greater influence on estimated price changes than other homes. FHFA’s index weights price trends equally for all properties.
d. The geographic coverage of the indexes differs. The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, for example, does not have valuation data from 13 states. FHFA’s U.S. index is calculated using data from all states.
For details concerning these and other differences, consult the HPI Technical Description (see http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/896/hpi_tech.pdf) and the S&P/Case-Shiller methodology materials. (see http://www.standardandpoors.com/home/en/us)
Also note that recent papers analyze in detail the methodological and data differences between the two price metrics. The most recent paper can be downloaded at http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/1163/OFHEOSPCS12008.pdf.
14. What role do Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac play in the House Price Index?
FHFA uses data supplied by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in compiling the HPI. Each of the Enterprises had previously created a weighted repeat-transactions index based on property matches within its own database. In the first quarter of 1994, Freddie Mac began publishing the Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index (CMHPI). The CMHPI was jointly developed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The CMHPI series covers the period 1970 to the present.
15. What is the methodology used by FHFA in computing the Index?
The methodology is a modified version of the Case-Shiller® geometric weighted repeat-sales procedure. A detailed description of the HPI methodology is available upon request from FHFA at (202) 414-6922 or online at: http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/896/hpi_tech.pdf.
16. A Note Regarding Downloadable ASCII Data
The ASCII data for metropolitan areas are normalized to the first quarter of 1995. That is, the HPI equals 100 for all MSAs in the first quarter of 1995. States and divisions are normalized to 100 in the first quarter of 1980. The purchase-only indexes have the first quarter of 1991 as their base period. Note that normalization dates do not affect measured appreciation rates.
17. Is the HPI adjusted for inflation?
No, the HPI is not adjusted for inflation. For inflation adjustments, one can use the Consumer Price Index “All Items Less Shelter” series. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ price index series ID# CUUR0000SA0L2, for example, has tracked non-shelter consumer prices since the 1930s. That series and others can be downloaded at: http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/srgate.
18. How do I use the manipulatable data (in TXT files) on the Web site to calculate appreciation rates?
The index numbers alone (for Census Divisions and U.S., individual states, and MSAs) do not have significance. They have meaning in relation to previous or future index numbers, because you can use them to calculate appreciation rates using the formula below.
To calculate appreciation between any 2 quarters, use the formula:
(QUARTER 2 INDEX NUMBER - QUARTER 1 INDEX NUMBER) / QUARTER 1 INDEX NUMBER
You can generate annual numbers by taking the four quarter average for each year.
19. How is FHFA's House Price Index constructed for MSAs? The Web site says that you use the 2008 definitions based on the 2000 Census to define each MSA. Is this true for all time periods covered by each index? Or do the definitions change over time as the Census expanded its MSA definitions? For example, if the definition of an MSA added three counties between 1980 and 2000, would the value of the index in 1980 cover the three counties that were not included in the 1980 SMSA definition?
The HPI is recomputed historically each quarter. So the MSA definition used to compute the 1982 (for example) index value in Anchorage, AK would be the 2008 definition. The series is comparable backwards.
20. How can the House Price Index for an MSA be linked to zip codes within that MSA?
FHFA does not publish price indexes for specific zip codes. Researchers are sometimes interested in associating the MSA-level index with zip codes within that MSA, however. A crosswalk that precisely matches zip codes to MSAs is not available as it would involve certain technical problems.
Please see http://www.census.gov/geo/www/tiger/tigermap.htmlfor a description of the underlying technical difficulties involved with constructing a crosswalk table.
One can create an imperfect lookup table in two steps using publicly available data, however. In the first step, one can download a table that provides county information for each zip code in the U.S. This information, which is available at: www.census.gov/geo/www/tiger/zip1999.html, was compiled in 1999 by the Census Bureau. Counties are identified by their Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) code number. One can then identify the Metropolitan Statistical Area associated with each county FIPS code by using data found at http://www.bea.gov/regional/docs/msalist.cfm?mlist=45. These data were compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in 2004 and thus may be somewhat out of date.
21. How and why is the HPI revised each quarter?
Historical estimates of the HPI revise for three primary reasons:
1) The HPI is based on repeat transactions. That is, the estimates of appreciation are based on repeated valuations of the same property over time. Therefore, each time a property "repeats" in the form of a sale or refinance, average appreciation since the prior sale/refinance period is influenced.
2) GSEs purchase seasoned loans, providing new information about prior quarters.
3) Due to a 30- to 45-day lag time from loan origination to GSE funding, FHFA receives data on new fundings for one additional month following the last month of the quarter. These fundings contain many loans originating in that most recent quarter, and especially the last month of the quarter. This will reduce with subsequent revisions, however data on loans purchased with a longer lag, including seasoned loans, will continue to generate revisions, especially for the most recent quarters.
22. What transaction dates are used in estimating the index?
For model estimation, the loan origination date is used as the relevant transaction date.
23. Are foreclosure sales included in the HPI?
Transactions that merely represent title transfers to lenders will not appear in the data. Once lenders take possession of foreclosed properties, however, the subsequent sale to the public can appear in the data. As with any other property sale, the sales information will be in FHFA’s data if the buyer purchases the property with a loan that is bought or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Note that a brief analysis of the impact of distressed sales (including foreclosure sales) on the HPI can be found at http://www.fhfa.gov/Default.aspx?Page=72.
24. How are the monthly House Price Indexes calculated?
The monthly indexes are calculated in the same way as the quarterly indexes are constructed, except transactions from the same quarter are no longer aggregated. To construct the quarterly index, all transactions from the same quarter are aggregated and index values are estimated using the assigned quarters. In the monthly indexing model, all transactions for the same month are aggregated and separate index values are estimated for each month.
25. How are the U.S. indexes constructed?
For both the all-transactions and purchase-only indexes, the national index is constructed using quarterly growth rates for the Census Divisions. The U.S. index is set equal to 100 in the relevant base period (1980Q1 for the all-transaction index and 1991Q1 for the purchase-only measure). Then, the national index for the following quarter is increased (or decreased) by the weighted average quarterly price change for the nine Census Divisions. Then, in each subsequent quarter, the national index grows by a rate equal to the average quarterly growth rate for relevant quarter. For the period immediately before the base quarter, the national index value is set equal to 100 divided by the weighted average quarterly growth rate for the base quarter. Preceding index values are calculated in a similar fashion (so that, when increased by the weighted average growth rate for the following quarter, its value will equal the known index value for the following quarter).
The weights used in constructing the weighted average quarterly growth rates reflect an estimate of the Census Division’s contemporary share of one-unit detached properties in the U.S. For years in which a Census was taken, the share from the relevant Census is used. For intervening years, a Census Division’s share is the weighted average of the relevant shares in the prior and subsequent Censuses, where the weights are changed by ten percentage points each year. For example, the Pacific Division’s weight for 1982 would be 0.8 times its share in the 1980 Census plus 0.2 times its share in the 1990 Census. For 1983, the Pacific Division’s share would be 0.7 times its 1980 share plus 0.3 times its 1990 share. Until the 2010 Census data become available, for years between 2001 and 2009, Census Division weights will be set to the relevant shares in the 2000 Census. Year-specific Census Division weights can be downloaded at http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/1147/weights.xls. The underlying housing stock estimates from the Census Bureau can be accessed at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/units.html.
26. For those house price indexes that are seasonally-adjusted, what approach is used in performing the seasonal adjustment?
The Census Bureau’s X-12 ARIMA procedure is used, as implemented in the SAS software package. The automated ARIMA model-selection algorithm in X-12 is employed, which searches through a series of seasonality structures and selects the first that satisfies the Ljung-Box test for serial correlation.
To obtain more information on the HPI contact FHFA at (202) 414-6922 or via e-mail at: email@example.com.
FHFA does not publish a repeat purchase index for the eleven metropolitan areas comprised of metropolitan divisions. Therefore, Moody's Analytics estimates a repeat purchase index for these areas (RHOFHOPIQ). This series is created from a weighted average of the metropolitan division repeat purchase indices. Moody's Analytics estimates of home sales by metropolitan division are used as the weights.
Beginning with release of the August 2008 data the OFHEO indexes have been renamed. Since OFHEO is now part of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the series are now referred to as the FHFA Home Price Indexes.