United States - Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

For the U.S., the monthly Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold. It is increasingly recognized by both financial and economic analysts as the premier indicator of pricing trends in the used vehicle market but should not be considered indicative or predictive of any individual remarketer’s results.

The Index is adjusted for mix of vehicle classes, mileage, and seasonality.

Active:

• Measurement: Fixed-base index relative to January 1997 (Index Jan1997=100)
• Adjustment: Seasonally adjusted (SA)
• Native frequency: Monthly
• Start date: 1997m1

Predecessor:

• 1995=100 - 1995m1 to 2022m12 ("_95")

Sample

The Index is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions that fall into the 20 market classes according to the J.D. Power and Associates classification scheme listed below. This results in a useable sample size of over five million transactions annually.

• Compact car, Entry
• Compact car, Premium
• Fullsize car
• Luxury car, Entry
• Luxury car, luxury sport car
• Luxury car, Mid luxury
• Luxury car, Premium
• Midsize car, Entry
• Midsize car, Premium
• Pickup, Compact
• Pickup, Heavy duty fullsize
• Pickup, Lite duty fullsize
• Sports car, Premium
• Sports car, Sporty
• SUV/CUV, Entry
• SUV/CUV, Fullsize
• SUV/CUV, Luxury
• SUV/CUV, Midsize
• Van, Compact
• Van, Fullsize

Calculation

1. Eliminate outliers
• Calculate average miles and average price for each model year / make / body. 
• For each transaction calculate price and mileage deviation. 
• Outliers are defined as those where both price and mileage are outside of 2.6 standard deviations.
2. Calculate mean sale price and mileage by market class
3. Adjust prices for mileage
• The per mile adjustment is based on a simple linear regression for price and miles for each market class based on data for the current month.
• The mileage differential used is: current month’s average mileage by market class minus average mileage for that market class over the past 24 months.
4. Combine prices across market classes
• The Index is weighted based on a 24-month rolling average of past sales by market class.
• Note: In the original version of Manheim Index, market class averages were sales-weighted to a total based on fixed weights that represented unit volumes sold in calendar year 1998.
5. Seasonally adjust using the latest Census Bureau method

Timeliness

The Index for each month is generally published on the fifth business day of the following month.

Further reading

At the source:

• Historical analysis
• Relative merits of the Manheim Index versus the used vehicle component of the CPI
• Methodology (pdf)

• 13 Jan 2023, Phillip Thorne - Properties