|Unit||Ths. #, SA|
|Source||U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)|
|Release||US Labor Force Statistics - Current Population Survey|
|Labor Force||Oct 2018||162,637||161,926||Ths. #, SA||Monthly|
|Labor Force Employment||Oct 2018||156,562||155,962||Ths. #, SA||Monthly|
|Manufacturing Employment||Oct 2018||12,785||12,753||Ths. #, SA||Monthly|
|Total Employment Non-Ag||Oct 2018||149,750||149,500||Ths. #, SA||Monthly|
|Unemployment||Oct 2018||6,075||5,964||Ths. #, SA||Monthly|
|Unemployment Rate||Oct 2018||3.7||3.7||%, SA||Monthly|
|Wage & Salaries||2018 Q3||8,905,011||8,806,162||Mil. USD, SAAR||Quarterly|
|Primary Industries Employment||Mar 2018||1,138,843||1,129,288||#, NSA||Monthly|
The BLS presents labor force and unemployment data for census regions and divisions, states, and selected substate areas from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program (tables 1 to 4). Also presented are nonfarm payroll employment estimates by state and industry supersector from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program (tables 5 and 6). The LAUS and CES programs are both federal-state cooperative endeavors.
Please note that data for all sub-state areas (combined areas, counties, and cites) are released at a later date with the metropolitan area data.
1. Labor force and unemployment--from the LAUS program
The labor force and unemployment data are based on the same concepts and definitions as those used for the Current Population Survey (CPS), a sample survey of households that is conducted for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) by the U.S. Census Bureau. The LAUS program measures employment and unemployment on a place-of-residence basis. The universe the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over. The information is collected from a sample of about 50,000 households located in 792 sample areas
Estimates for 48 of the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and select areas are produced using time-series models. This method, which underwent substantial enhancement at the beginning of 2015, utilizes data from several sources, including the CPS, the CES, and state unemployment insurance (UI) programs.
Estimates for the state of California are derived by summing the estimates for the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale metropolitan division and the balance of California. Similarly, estimates for New York State are derived by summing the estimates for New York City and the balance of New York State.
Estimates for census regions are obtained by summing the model-based estimates for the component divisions. Each month, census division estimates are controlled to the national totals; state estimates are then controlled to their respective division totals. Sub-state and balance-of-state estimates for the five areas noted above are controlled to their respective state totals.
Estimates for Puerto Rico are derived from a monthly household survey similar to the CPS. A detailed description of the estimation procedures is available from BLS upon request.
The sub-state area data published in this release reflect the delineations issued by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget on February 28, 2013. A detailed list of the geographic definitions is available.
2. Employment--from the CES program
Data based on establishment records are compiled each month from mail questionnaires and telephone interviews by the BLS in cooperation with state agencies. State agencies. The Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey is designed to provide industry information on nonfarm wage and salary employment, average weekly hours, average hourly earnings, and average weekly earnings for the Nation, States, and metropolitan areas. Data are based on payroll reports from a sample of over 390,000 establishments employing over 47 million nonfarm wage and salary workers.
CES State and Area employment data are produced using several estimation procedures. Where possible these data are produced using a "weighted link relative" estimation technique in which a ratio of current month weighted employment to that of the previous-month weighted employment is computed from a sample of establishments reporting for both months. The estimates of employment for the current month are then obtained by multiplying these ratios by the previous month's employment estimates. The weighted link relative technique is utilized for data series where the sample size meets certain statistical criteria.
For some employment series, the sample of establishments is very small or highly variable. In these cases, a model-based approach is used in estimation. These models use the direct sample estimates (described above), combined with forecasts of historical (benchmarked) data to decrease volatility in estimation. For more detailed information about each model, refer to the BLS Handbook of Methods.
Payroll employment data are seasonally adjusted at the statewide supersector level. In some states, the seasonally adjusted payroll employment total is computed by aggregating the independently adjusted supersector series. In other states, the seasonally adjusted payroll employment total is independently adjusted.
State estimation procedures are designed to produce accurate data for each individual state. The BLS independently develops a national employment series; state estimates are not forced to sum to national totals. Because each state series is subject to larger sampling and non-sampling errors than the national series, summing them cumulates individual state level errors and can cause significant distortions at an aggregate level. Due to these statistical limitations, BLS does not compile a "sum- of-states" employment series, and cautions users that such a series is subject to a relatively large and volatile error structure.
3. Reliability of the estimates
Series from the Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment release may be revised in the following month's State Employment and Unemployment release.
1. Labor force and unemployment--from the LAUS program
Data from the CPS are revised each month usually back two months. These revisions are largely due to newly available data. Additionally, labor force and unemployment data for prior years reflect adjustments made at the end of each year. The adjusted estimates reflect updated population data from the U.S. Census Bureau, any revisions in the other data sources, and model re-estimation. In most years, historical data for the most recent five years (both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted) are revised near the beginning of each calendar year, prior to the release of January estimates. With the introduction of a new generation of times-series models in early 2015, historical data were re-estimated back to the series beginnings in 1976, 1990, or 1994.
Once each year, labor force estimates are revised to reflect updated input data and new Census Bureau population controls. As part of this procedure, all of the state and sub-state models are reviewed, revised as necessary, and then reestimated; this reestimation is called "smoothing."
When new population controls are available from the Bureau of the Census (typically with the update of data for January) CPS estimates for all states and select areas are adjusted to these controls. Additionally, the time series regression models for the states and model-based areas are reestimated based on the latest input data.
Other sub-state estimates for non model-based metropolitan areas and counties for previous years are also revised on an annual basis, typically with the update of the data for the reference month of March or April. The updates incorporate any changes in the inputs, such as revisions to establishment-based employment estimates or claims data and updated historical relationships. The revised estimates are then readjusted to the latest statewide estimates of employment and unemployment.
2. Employment--from the CES program
Revisions of historical CES data for the most recent 5 years are made once a year, coincident with annual benchmark adjustments. CES Employment estimates are adjusted annually to a complete count of jobs, called benchmarks, derived principally from tax reports that are submitted by employers who are covered under state unemployment insurance (UI) laws. The benchmark information is used to adjust the monthly estimates between the new benchmark and the preceding one and also to establish the level of employment for the new benchmark month. Thus, the benchmarking process establishes the level of employment, and the sample is used to measure the month-to-month changes in the level for the subsequent months. Please refer to the BLS for additional information on recent benchmark revisions for states.
The BLS releases state totals for main industries at 10:00am. Industrial data and data for metropolitan areas are released in bulk files around 10:30am. Due to the large volume of these files, it takes about an hour to fully update our datasets with the reported data and an additional hour to update Moody's Analytics' supplemental series. Expect the release to be fully updated by 12:30pm.
The CPS was significantly redesigned with the release of data for January 1994. A new questionnaire, automated data collection methods, and a modernized computer processing system were introduced. Users should expect a break in the data between December 1993 and January 1994.
Additional information on the methodology used by the BLS for the CPS can be found here.
Much information on this page was taken from the BLS's technical note
Please refer to the BLS for a full listing of CES Published Series by NAICS industry.
Please refer to the BLS for more information on the Non-standard CES areas