Bulgaria - Consumer Price Index (CPI)

For Bulgaria, a monthly detailed consumer price index and the monthly headline harmonized consumer price index.

The source writes:

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the general relative change of the prices of goods and services used by households for private (non production) consumption. It is defined as a "pure price change" index. The general consumer price index summarizes the individual price indices of the observed goods and services.

The consumer price index is applied in three main areas as:

• Macroeconomic indicator - as official measure of inflation in Bulgaria;
• Deflator of the values of indicators, which do not have their own price measure;
• Tool for possible indexation of salaries, pensions and other incomes from the Government when needed

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is the comparable measure of inflation across EU Member states. It is one of the criterions of price stability and for readiness of Bulgaria to join the Euro-zone. HICP, just as CPI, measures the total relative change of the prices of goods and services. Both indices are calculated using the same basket of goods and services, but differ with respect to the used weights. HICP is calculated through the use of weights, which reflect the individual and the collective consumption of all households (incl. institutional and foreign households) on the economic territory of the country. The main source of information for HICP weights is the national accounts data. HICP in year t is calculated with the weights of year t-2.

CPI

• Classification: COICOP
• Measurement: Fixed-base index relative to 1995 (Index 1995=100)
• Adjustment: Not seasonally adjusted (NSA)
• Native frequency: Monthly
• Start date: Uniformly 1995m1

CPI-H

Active:

• Measurement: Fixed-base index relative to 2015 (Index 2015=100)
• Adjustment: Not seasonally adjusted (NSA)
• Native frequency: Monthly
• Start date: 1997m1

Predecessor:

• 2005=100 - 1997 to 2015

The source writes:

CPI

Geographic coverage

The sample of settlements includes settlements in 27 district centers. Over 49.7% of the populations of the country live in the sampled settlements and over 65% of the sales are made in them.

Observation points

The number and the structure of the observed market points are selected in a way that can assure the optimum number of prices collected, which are sufficient to represent national prices for any group of goods and services in the consumer basket. The sample includes outlets, which:

• Have a large volume of retail sales.
• Supply a variety of goods, representative of the relevant “elementary aggregates” in the consumer basket. The main types of retail trade are covered, including the biggest outlets such as: supermarkets, general and specialized stores, cooperative markets.

The selection is made by price collectors and is confirmed by the director of the respective regional statistical office.

There are above 6,300 observation points for the year 2013.

Classifications

The consumer basket for the year 2013 consists of 665 goods and services, divided into four basic groups:

• Foods - 170
• Non-foods - 310
• Catering - 36
• Services - 149

These goods and services are grouped into 12 basic divisions in accordance with the COICOP/HICP classification:

• Food and non-alcoholic beverages
• Alcoholic beverages and tobacco
• Clothing and footwear
• Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels
• Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance
• Health
• Transport
• Communications
• Recreation and culture
• Education
• Hotels, cafes and restaurants
• Miscellaneous goods and services

HICP

Population coverage

HICP covers expenditures of the following households’ categories within the economic territory of the country according to the domestic concept for consumption:

• expenditures of residential (Bulgarian) households, incl.institutional households
• expenditures of non-residents (foreign citizens)

HICP excludes:

• expenditures of Bulgarian households abroad
• expenditures for consumer goods for business purposes

Geographic coverage

HICP covers the whole territory of the country. All regions are included in the sample of settlements where the prices for HICP are observed. At this stage non-probability sampling techniques (cut-off) are applied. Settlements are selected on the base of population and the volume of retail sales in each one. 27 of the NUTS 3 regions are included in the settlement sample.

Classification

Classification of individual consumption by purpose which is elaborated for the purpose of HICP (COICOP/HICP) according to the Regulation 2214/96 from 20 November 1996, amended by Regulation 1749/99 from 23 July 1999.

Moody's Analytics supplements

For the CPI general index, we extend by four years using IMF.

For both the CPI and CPI-H general indexes, we produce seasonally adjusted counterparts using the U.S. Census Bureau's X-13 ARIMA program.

Yes. Figures are subject to revision with each release of the historical data.

Futher reading

At the source:

• CPI
• HICP

At IMF (SDDS Plus):

• Real sector: Price index: Consumer prices