|Unit||Index 2010=100, NSA|
|Adjustments||Not Seasonally Adjusted|
|Release||Production index [IPI]|
|Business Confidence||2023 Q1||13.66||10.27||weighted net balance Index,NSA||Quarterly|
|Change in Inventories||2022 Q4||-112,727||30,090||Bil. IDR, NSA||Quarterly|
|Real Change in Inventories||2022 Q4||-58,692||15,667||Bil. 2010 IDR, NSA||Quarterly|
|Industrial Production||Sep 2022||155.97||159.29||Index 2010=100, NSA||Monthly|
For Indonesia, the production index for manufacturing, a.k.a. industrial production index (IPI). The production index is a measure of monthly change, in real terms, of the total production of large and medium non-oil manufacturing establishments.
The source writes:
A fixed-weight measure of physical output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities. Monthly percent changes in the index reflect the rate of change in output. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector Concepts and Definitions Manufacturing Establishment is defined as a production unit engaged in economic activity, producing goods or services, located in a building or in a certain location, keeping business records concerning the production and cost structure, and having a person or more who bear the responsibility or the risk of that activity. Manufacturing Industries are classified into four size categories based on the number of persons engaged without considering the use of machine powers as well as the value of capital owned by that particular industry. The four categories are:
Industrial classification: Industrial classification is based on the International Standard Industrial Classification for all economic activities (ISIC, Rev.3. 1990).
Production Index of Large and Medium Manufacturing (LMM)
I. Source of data Monthly Survey of Large and Medium Manufacturing
II. Sampling Since 2002 the industrial production indices have been using the 2000 sampling frame. In accordance with the sample design, the indices can be published maximally only 2 digits ISIC revised 3. The selection of the sample was made in three steps. In the first step, establishments selected with certainty were establishment's with output value of Rp. 750.09 billion or more. In the second step, establishments selected with certainty were establishments in the top 1% of output per worker were added. The last step, others are selected with Probability Proportional to Size (PPS). The sample size of Monthly Survey of LMM is about 600 establishments taken from the 2000 Annual Industry Survey, which represent about 56 percent of total output of large and medium manufacturing.
III. Methodology Methodology of the sample selection is still the same as the old one, i.e. Cut off Point and PPS. The methodology of calculation for the monthly production indices has been using “Divisia method”. The calculation is based on the estimation of inter month commodity growth. Quarterly production indices are calculated by averaging the three monthly indices on the concerned quarter.
IV. The reason of changes The changes of 1996 sampling frame was done by considering that the sampling frame was not representative anymore. More over with the new sampling frame, it is hoped that “the panel bias” occurred could be reduced.
V. Formula Computation of the monthly quantity production indices follow these steps:
5.1. Establishment ratio. Where: Rij is the ratio of establishment j in ISIC i of the 2nd month to the 1st month. Qijk2 is the production of commodity k for establishment j in ISIC i at the 2nd month. Qijk1 is the production of commodity k for establishment j in ISIC i at the 1st month. Vijk is the production value of commodity k for establishment j in ISIC i during the two-month period.
5.2. ISIC index. Where: I2t is 2-digit production index in the t-th month. I2(t-1) is 2-digit production index in the (t-1)th month. Wij adj is the adjusted sampling weight of establishment j in the 2-digit ISICi Vij is the production value of establishment j in ISIC i during the two-month period.
5.3. Total index. Where: It is the index of total production in the t-th month. I(t-1) is the index of total production in the (t-1)th month. Wi2 is the total of sampling weight for all establishments in 2-digit ISIC i during the two-month period. Vi2 is the total of production value for all establishments in 2-digit ISIC i during the two-month period.
The time series is monthly (12 times per year) but is disseminated on a quarterly cadence (four times per year) (i.e., it is "bursty") with a five-month lag. For example, the first three months (January, February, March) are disseminated at the end of August.
We back-extend the as-reported index (1996 to 2009) using IMF data. We compute a seasonally adjusted counterpart using the X-13 program.
When first published the data are “extremely preliminary figures” and are revised twice before the final figures are published.
At IMF (SDDS):