France - Consumer Confidence

Monthly consumer confidence survey

Survey description

INSEE has conducted a monthly consumer confidence survey since January 1987. The monthly survey

now replaces the four-month survey carried out by the Institute until October 1994. In the overlap period,

statisticians were able to verify the consistency in the movements of the two series of indicators. The

monthly survey offers the added advantage of tracking changes in consumer opinion more closely through

a more precise identification of the turning-points.

The monthly survey gives a picture of households' opinions on their economic environment and on some

aspects of their personal economic circumstances. It provides information on consumer behavior and

expectations in regard to spending and saving. The survey monitors short-term phenomena—such as

prices, unemployment, and saving—as they are perceived by households, independently of

macroeconomic indicators. These perceptions are a useful input for short-term economic analysis.

About 2,000 households are interviewed by telephone. The data have been captured directly since

January 1991. The interviews take place in the first three weeks of every month except August. The

August values in the charts are obtained by a linear interpolation of data from the July and September

surveys.

The responses are tabulated in balance-of-opinion form and seasonally adjusted. Seasonal coefficients

are recalculated at the end of every quarter, occasionally entailing some minor revisions in the series.

Harmonized European surveys

Identical monthly surveys are conducted in European Union countries. Results are published by the

Commission in the journal European Economy (Supplement B) and reprinted in the "International Affairs"

section of INSEE's Informations Rapides.

The Commission also calculates a summary indicator of household opinion that it calls the "consumer

confidence indicator." The latter and the indicator published here may sometimes differ both in their levels

and their rates of change, since the balances of opinion are calculated with different weights for each

response modality. The seasonal adjustment method is also different.

Indicators

Each indicator is calculated by subtracting the percentage of negative responses from the percentage of

positive responses. "Don't know" responses are ignored.

Summary indicator

Arithmetic mean of following five indicators:

- Personal financial position - past change

- Personal financial position - outlook

- Likelihood of major purchases

- Living standards in France - past change

- Living standards in France - outlook

Note: The seasonally adjusted series of the summary indicator is obtained by a seasonal adjustment of

the raw series, not by averaging the five seasonally-adjusted basic series.

The European harmonization of the monthly consumer confidence survey as from

January 2004

In order to allow a perfect harmonization of European economic surveys, the monthly consumer

confidence survey undergoes several changes starting from January 2004 for some questions:

- A rewording and in particular a modification of the temporary reference: now systematically the past or

next twelve months (see annexe).

- A different choice in the answers (see annexe) and in particular the deletion of screening: for instance,

the four terms YES, CERTAINLY / YES, MAYBE / NO, PROBABLY NOT / NO, CERTAINLY NOT are now proposed

simultaneously to the respondents, whereas before the situation was the following: first the answers YES

/ NO were proposed, and then CERTAINLY / MAYBE or PROBABLY NOT / CERTAINLY NOT; this modification

generally moves upwards the levels of the balances of opinion.

- A new ordering of the questions in the questionnaire.

- A modification of the sampling method: the number of interviewees remains the same (about 2000 per

month), but the drawing of the sample is modified, in order to take better into account the penetration

rate of people who have an unlisted telephone number.

Thanks to this reform of the survey, the European questionnaires will now be harmonized and therefore

more easily comparable. However, because of the differences with the former survey, one will have to be

very cautious in the interpretation of the results during the first months of 2004. Since the seasonality of

the new series is not known yet, we will suppose for a start that there is no difference between the

seasonalities of the new series and the ones of the old series.

ANNEXE: the questionnaires of the monthly consumer survey

New questionnaire Former questionnaire

Question 1: How do you think the general economic

situation in your country has changed over the past

12 months ? It has … got a lot better (+) / got a little

better (+) / stayed the same / got a little worse (-) / got

a lot worse (-) / don’t know

Question 1.0: In your opinion, overall living

standards in France have… improved (+) / remained

stable / worsened (-)

(Question 1.1. if improved or worsened: significantly / slightly)

Question 2: How do you expect the general

economic situation in this country to develop over

the next 12 months ? It will… get a lot better (+) / get

a little better (+) / stay the same / get a little worse (-) /

get a lot worse (-) / don’t know

Question 2.0: In your opinion, overall living

standards in France in the next year will… improve

(+) / remain stable / worsen (-)

(Question 2.1. if improved or worsened: significantly / slightly)

Question 3: How do you expect the number of

people unemployed (unemployment) in this country

to change over the next 12 months ? The number

will… increase sharply (+) / increase slightly (+) /

remain the same / fall slightly (-) / fall sharply (-) /

don’t know

Question 3.0: In your opinion, the number of

unemployed in the coming months will… rise (+) /

remain stable / fall (-)

(Question 3.1. if improved or worsened: significantly / slightly)

Question 4: How do you think that consumer prices

have developed over the last 12 months ? They

have … risen a lot (+) / risen moderately / risen

slightly (-) / stayed about the same (-) / fallen (-) / don’t

know

Question 4.1: By how many per cent do you think that

consumer prices have gone up / down over the past 12

months ?

N.B. The answer to question 4.1 is not published.

Question 4.0: In your opinion, prices in the past six

months have… risen / remained stable (-) / fallen

slightly (-)

(Question 4.1: if risen: sharply (+) / moderately / slightly (-))

…/…

Question 5: By comparison with the past 12

months, how do you expect that consumer prices

will develop in the next 12 months ? They will…

increase more rapidly (+) / increase at the same rate

/ increase at a slower rate (-) / stay about the

same (-) / fall (-) / don’t know

Question 5.1: By how many percent do you expect consumer

prices to go up / down in the next 12 months ?

N.B. The answer to question 5.1 is not published.

Question 5.0: By comparison with today, how do

you expect prices to move in the coming months ?

They will rise more quickly (+) / They will rise just as

quickly / They will rise less quickly (-) / They will

remain stable (-) / They will fall slightly (-)

Question 6: In view of the general economic

situation, do you think now it is the right moment for

people to make major purchases such as furniture,

electrical / electronic devices, etc. ? Yes, it is the

right moment now (+) / It is neither the right moment

nor the wrong moment / no, it is not the right

moment now (-) / don’t know.

Question 6.0: Do you think it is the right time for

major purchases (furniture, washing machines,

TVs…) ? Yes, it’s a fairly good time (+) / It’s neither a

good time nor a bad time / No, it’s not a very good

time (-)

Question 7: In view of the general economic

situation, do you think that now is … ? A very good

moment to save (+) / a fairly good moment to save (+)

/ not a good moment to save (-) / a very bad moment

to save (-) / don’t know.

Question 7.1: In your opinion, over the last twelve months,

overall living standards in France have… significantly

improved (+) / slightly improved (+) / remained stable / slightly

worsened (-) / significantly worsened (-)

Question 7.2: In your opinion, overall living standards in

France in the next twelve months will… significantly improve

(+) / slightly improve (+) / remain stable / slightly worsen (-) /

significantly worsen (-)

N.B. Questions 7.1 et 7.2, which were asked in the former

questionnaire, will be maintained for one year, and then will be

taken away. As a matter of fact, they will be replaced by

questions 1 and 2 concerning the general economic situation.

Question 7.0: In the present economic situation, do

you think it’s reasonable to put money into

savings ? Yes (+) / No (-)

(Question 7.1 if yes: certainly / maybe;

Question 7.2 if no: probably not / certainly not)

Question 8: Which of these statements best

describes the current financial situation of your

household ? We are saving a lot (+) / we are saving

a little (+) / we are just managing to make ends meet

on our income / we are having to draw on our

savings (-) / we are running into debt (-) / don’t know

Question 8.0: What is your present financial

position ? You have a lot of money left to save (+) /

You have some money left to save (+) / You just

about make ends meet / You’re dipping into your

savings (-) / You’re getting into debt (-)

Question 9: How has the financial situation of your

household changed over the last 12 months ? It

has… got a lot better (+) / got a little better (+) /

stayed the same / got a little worse (-) / got a lot

worse (-) / don’t know

Question 9.0: In the past six months, your financial

position … has improved (+) / has remained stable /

has worsened (-)

(Question 9.1: significantly / slightly)

Question 10: How do you expect the financial

position of your household to change over the next

12 months ? It will… get a lot better (+) / get a little

better (+) / stay the same / get a little worse (-) / get a

lot worse (-) / don’t know

Question 10.0: In the coming months, do you

expect your financial position to… improve (+)

/remain stable / worsen (-)

(Question 10.1: significantly / slightly)

In English:

http://www.insee.fr/en/indicateurs/indic_conj/donnees/method_idconj_20.pdf

INSEE presents data for this release with fewer decimal places for some series in its press release tables and their BDM macroeconomic database than it does in an excel file released as an attachment to the press release. We have elected to report data at a precision level consistent with the BDM and press release tables.