Romania - Exports of Goods and Services

For Romania, quarterly national accounts, including the expenditure, production, and by income approaches, in nominal and real terms, and NSA and SA variants.

Active:

• National accounts framework: ESA 2010
• Activity classification: CAEN Rev. 2, which aligns with NACE Rev. 2
• Measurements:
  • Millions of Romanian new leu at chained year-2000 prices (Mil. Ch. 2000 RON)
  • At current prices (Mil. RON)
  • Thousands of persons (Ths.)
• Adjustments:
  • Working day adjusted and seasonally adjusted (WDASA)
  • Seasonally adjusted (SA)
  • Not seasonally adjusted (NSA)
• Native frequency: Quarterly
• Start date: As early as 1995Q1

Predecessors:

• ESA 95 at 2000 prices - 2000 to 2014
• CANE Rev. 1 at 2000 prices - 2000 to 2011
• 2003 prices - 2005 to 2006
• 1995 prices - 2000 to 2005

The source writes:

Quarterly Gross Domestic Product at market price (QGDP), the main macro-economic aggregate of national accounting, represents the final result of production activity for resident productive units, for a certain period, a quarter, respectively:

Quarterly Gross Domestic Product at market price is estimated by two approaches:

1. output approach:
   

   QGDP=GVA+TP-SP
   where:
   GVA=gross value added at basic prices;
   TP=taxes on products;
   SP=subsidies on products.

2. expenditure approach:
   

   QGDP=FC+GCF+E-I
   where:
   FC= actual final consumption;
   GCF=gross capital formation;
   E=exports of goods and services;
   I=imports of goods and services.

The main data sources used for quarterly Gross Domestic Product estimation are:

• statistical sources: short-term surveys regarding industrial production, construction, services, trade; production account for agriculture; short-term surveys regarding earnings and employment;
• financial-accounting sources: accounting statements of financial institutions;
• Aadministrative sources: execution of state budget and local budgets, and of social security budget; balance of payments.

Quarterly Gross Domestic Product is estimated in current prices, in the prices of the corresponding period of the previous year and in the average prices of the year 2000. The estimates in average prices of 2000 are calculated by chain-linking volume indices.

Besides the gross estimates of quarterly Gross Domestic Product, seasonally adjusted estimates are also compiled beginning with 2009, based on the regressive method, this method being recommended by the European regulations.

The seasonal adjustment envisages the removal of seasonal effects from the data series in view to highlight the real economic evolution during consecutive periods.

In order to adjust the main aggregates series, based on which the GDP is estimated through the production and expenditure methods, DEMETRA software package is used (TRAMO/SEATS method). This leads to the estimation of seasonal effect (events taking place each year at the same time, with the same amplitude and orientation, such as: seasons, holidays, etc.), of the working days number different from one month to another and the calendar effect (Orthodox Easter, leap year and other national holidays) as well as to the outliers identification and correction (circumstantial, transitional or permanent changes in level) and to missing data interpolation.

The quarterly national accounts of Romania generally show a strong seasonality, while the effect of working days number and of the calendar is not significant. For this reason no adjustment method is necessary for these two components.

The seasonally adjusted series was obtained by removing this effect from the unadjusted series, by means of correction coefficients, selected depending on the regression model used (additive or multiplicative). The additive or multiplicative model used for regression is automatically identified by the DEMETRA software, depending on the nature of series that are subject to adjustments.

The seasonally adjusted GDP is obtained through the direct method, thus leading to a statistical discrepancy between the GDP and the sum of its components, which are independently seasonally adjusted.

The seasonally adjusted GDP is obtained through the direct method, thus leading to a statistical discrepancy between the GDP and the sum of its components, which are independently seasonally adjusted.

The selection of regression models used for each series takes place at the beginning of each year and entails a revision of adjusted series compiled during the previous year (revision due to the changes of selected models, of regression factors number and of available observations number).

Currently, the European Union Member States using national accounts ESA95 system established by Regulation (EC) 2223/96. Since September 2014, all EU Member States are obliged to publish data on national accounts methodology of the European System of Accounts 2010 (ESA 2010), which was approved by Regulation (EU) No. 549/2013 of the European Parliament et and of the Council of 21 May 2013. Consequently, Romania, through the National Institute of Statistics will publish the first estimates of national accounts standard ESA 2010 according to the timetable set out in § 3.

The transition to the new system of national accounts is envisaged reflect new economic realities and at the same time, meet the information needs of users in terms of the rapidity of publication of results and measurement of issues, such as current expenses resulting from research and development and the defense industry or liabilities related to pension schemes. At the same time, the ESA 2010 is in accordance with the rules established national accounts worldwide (SNA 2008), adapted to the structures of the economies of Member States so that data Union are comparable with those compiled by its main international partners level.

The source writes:

The revision of the quarterly accounts data is periodically done, when a new version of yearly national accounts is available. The revision of data has as objective to keep the coherence between the quarterly accounts and the yearly accounts. The periodical revision of national accounts unadjusted data series also entails the revision of seasonally adjusted series.

The data are provisional when first released. Data are revised and reconciled with the annual version of accounts (semifinal and final) and they become final after 21 months after the end of the reference year. All revisions are published in the relevant issue of the Monthly Statistical Bulletin.

Further reading

At IMF (SDDS Plus):

• Real sector: National accounts
• Real sector: Labor market: Wages/earnings