|Adjustments||Not Seasonally Adjusted|
|Population||2021 Q1||38,048,738||38,008,005||#, NSA||Quarterly|
|Births||2020 Q4||88,799||99,024||#, NSA||Quarterly|
|Deaths||2020 Q4||81,759||69,114||#, NSA||Quarterly|
|Birth Rate||2019||9.9||10.1||# per Ths. pop.||Annual|
|Death Rate||2019||7.6||7.7||# per Ths. pop.||Annual|
Quarterly estimates of total population and migration for Canada, provinces and territories. Quarterly from 1961.
The source writes:
The following groups of persons are included:
For census purposes, the last three groups in this list are referred to as non-permanent residents (NPR).
Foreign residents have not been enumerated since 1991. Foreign residents are persons who belong to the following groups:
Data are extracted from administrative files and derived from other Statistics Canada surveys and/or other sources.
Postcensal estimates are obtained by the component method, using the most recent census of population adjusted to July 1 and corrected for census net undercoverage (CNU) (including the adjustment for incompletely enumerated Indian reserves (IEIR)) as the base population (record no. 3901). Population estimates are produced by the component method. This method consists in taking the population figures from the most recent census, adjusted for CNU, and adding or subtracting the number of births, deaths, and components of international and interprovincial migration.
Population estimates can be either intercensal or postcensal. Intercensal estimates are produced using counts from two consecutive censuses adjusted for CNU (including adjustment for IEIR) and postcensal estimates. The production of intercensal estimates involves updating the postcensal estimates using the counts from a new census adjusted for CNU.
Postcensal estimates are produced using data from the most recent census adjusted for CNU and the components of population growth. In terms of timeliness, postcensal estimates are more up-to-date than data from the most recent census adjusted for CNU, but as they get farther from the date of that census, they become more variable.
Postcensal estimates are obtained by adding the number of births, subtracting the number of deaths and by adding or subtracting the net impact of international and interprovincial migration on the most recent census population adjusted for census coverage error (i.e. both census undercount and census overcount).
Estimates of population are first produced for each province and territory, and then summed to obtain an estimate of the population of Canada.
For more detailed information regarding population estimation methods, see Population and Family Estimation Methods at Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Catalogue No. 91-528-XIE or through the "Publications" sidebar above.
Measure of the precocity errors
The quality of preliminary demographic estimates of components is analysed using precocity errors. Precocity error is defined as the difference between preliminary and final estimate of a particular component in terms of its relative proportion of the total population for the relevant geographical area. It can be calculated for both population and component estimates. Precocity error allows for useful comparisons between components, as well as between provinces and territories or geographical areas of different population size.
Note that when compared to the total population for an area, the differences between preliminary and final estimates of the components are quite small. There are, however, differences in the amount of impact on the population estimates between components and between provinces and territories.
Generally speaking, net interprovincial migration yields the greatest precocity errors. This is likely the result of the use of different data sources for preliminary and final estimates. In most years and for most provinces/territories, births, deaths and immigration estimates yielded the smallest precocity errors. For immigration estimates, this reflects the completeness of the data source and the availability of data for the more timely preliminary estimates. For immigration estimates, this reflects the completeness of the data source and the ready availability of data for the more timely preliminary estimates. In the case of births and deaths, small precocity errors support the use of short-term projections for preliminary estimates.
The error of closure measures the exactness level of the final postcensal estimates. It can be defined as the difference between the enumerated population of the most recent census (after adjustments for census net undercoverage (CNU)) and the most current postcensal population estimates as of Census Day.
The error of closure comes from two sources: The relative differences in the amount of CNU and errors in the components of demographic growth over the intercensal period. With each 5-year intercensal period, the error of closure can only be calculated with the release of census data and estimates of CNU.
By dividing the error of closure by the census population adjusted for CNU, the differences are relatively small at the national level (0.16% for 2001 and 0.32% for 2006). At the provincial and territorial level, differences are understandably larger, since the estimates are also affected by errors in estimating interprovincial migration. Nevertheless, the provincial/territorial final postcensal estimates generally fall within 1% of the adjusted census population, except for the territories that fall within closer adjustments.
For more detailed information on the quality evaluation of the demographic estimates, see: Population and Family Estimation Methods at Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Catalogue 91-528-XIE.
Statistics Canada is prohibited by law from releasing any data which would divulge information obtained under the Statistics Act that relates to any identifiable person, business or organization without the prior knowledge or the consent in writing of that person, business or organization. Various confidentiality rules are applied to all data that are released or published to prevent the publication or disclosure of any information deemed confidential. If necessary, data are suppressed to prevent direct or residual disclosure of identifiable data.
We produce seasonally adjusted versions of total population at the country and proince geo levels.
We produce geography adjusted versions of the NSA and SA data.
Data are revised once a year, with typicial revisions spanning about eight quarters. After each census, postcensal estimates are revised to produce the intercensal estimates.
Population estimates are revised using birth, death and migration statistics when they become available. Revisions may result in notable changes for certain components, particularly for interprovincial migration.
Interprovincial migration data are derived from two sources. Preliminary migration estimates are based on changes of addresses recorded in the child tax benefit files from Revenue Canada Agency, and are available shortly after the reference month. Final interprovincial migration estimates are based on addresses supplied on personal income tax returns, and are available a year and a half after the reference year
Like other Statistics Canada demographic data, reference periods are non standard. Quarterly population estimates dates are: Quarter I = January 1; Quarter II = April 1; Quarter III = July 1; Quarter IV = October 1.
The above information was quoted from Statistics Canada.