Portugal - Consumer Confidence

For Portugal, a Eurostat-standard consumer confidence indicator (CCI). Monthly from 1997.

Active:

• Sample: 2021
• Measurement: Balance of opinion (Bal. of Opinion)
• Adjustments:
  • Seasonally adjusted (SA)
  • Not seasonally adjusted (NSA)
• Native frequencies: Monthly, quarterly
• Start date: As early as 1997m3

Predecessors:

• 2014 sample: 2001 to 2022 ("_22")
• 1997m9 to 2018m12 ("_18")

The source writes:

Variables collected

Data are compiled according to national definitions. The indicator measures consumers' opinions regarding savings, financial situation and general economic conditions by combining their replies to four questions. There are two questions on the financial situation and the savings possibilities of the consumers over the next twelve months and two on the general economic situation and on unemployment expectations over the next twelve months. A positive figure indicates an increase in consumer confidence.

Monthly questions

Evaluation of the financial situation of the household in the last 12 months and for the next year; evaluation of the economic situation of the country in the last 12 months and for the next year; evaluation of prices evolution in the last 12 months and for the next year; evolution of the unemployment for the next year, evaluation of the opportunity for people, at the time of answer, for buying durable goods; opinion for buying equipment goods for the household comparing the situation in the last year with the one predicted for the next; evaluation of the current economic situation for the opportunity to build up savings; evaluation of the situation during the following year to do some savings; description of the economic situation of the household in terms of increasing savings or increasing indebtness.

Additional quarterly questions

Level of certainty for buying/not buying a car in the next 12 months; level of certainty for buying a house to live in or to have holydays, or to rent or even to offer to a relative, etc, in the next 12 months; level of certainty to do/not do improvements in the house – installing central heating, new bathrooms, etc – in the next 12 months.

Aggregation and consolidation

Possible answers for the four first questions are "a lot better", "a little better", "the same", "a little worse" and "a lot worse" and for the fifth question, "yes, now is the right time", "not the right time, not the wrong time" and "no, it is the wrong time". For each question, the INE double weights the extreme reponses and compiles the per cent balance of positive over negative responses. The indicator is then calculated as an arithmetic average of results for the five questions.

Quality comments

The national CCI is now compiled by INE and is identical to the EC indicatior which is temporarily suspended. INE continues to use the same methodology as the private institute NORMA, which compiled the indicator in the past.

Name of collection/source

Data are collected via the monthly survey Inquérito de Conjuntura aos Consumidores (Consumer Behaviour Survey). Data are collected by personal interviews using CAPI. After the initial contact some surveys are conducted by telephone. Fieldwork is undertaken between the 1st and 15th of the month. Quarterly questions are asked during January, April, July and October surveys.

Direct source

Instituto Nacional de Estatistica (INE)

Sampling

The survey is aimed to the population sample that previously answered to the Household Income Survey 2000 (HIS). Both HIS and Consumer Survey are representative of the Portuguese population with more than 16 years old, living in the Portuguese Mainland (Continent).

The sample was stratified in 160 strata, since the individuals that compose the base-sample are classified according to:

• Region (5 NUTS II)
• Gender: male, female
• Age intervals: 16 – 29 years, 30 – 49 years; 50 – 64 years; 65 and more years
• Four income levels (quartile) defined for the continent as a whole
• Equivalent adult income level by household

The sample size is around 1800 units. The response rate is 85% on average.

Geographic coverage

Only urban areas are covered.

• Business Survey data has a break in the methodology at May 2015
• Consumer Survey data has a break in the methodology at November 2014
• A new methodology was implemented for January 2019

Further reading

At the source:

• For more information please visit: https://www.ine.pt/xportal/xmain?xpgid=ine_main&xpid=INE